Instrumental variables quantile regression for panel data with measurement errors

This paper develops an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression in panel data with fixed effects. Asymptotic properties of the instrumental variables estimator are studied for large N and T when Na/T ! 0, for some a > 0. Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov type tests for general linear restrictions are developed. The estimator is applied to the problem of measurement errors in variables, which induces endogeneity and as a result bias in the model. We derive an approximation to the bias in the quantile regression fixed effects estimator in the presence of measurement error and show its connection to similar effects in standard least squares models. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample properties of the estimator in terms of bias and root mean squared error. Finally, the methods are applied to a model of firm investment. The results show interesting heterogeneity in the Tobin’s q and cash flow sensitivities of investment. In both cases, the sensitivities are monotonically increasing along the quantiles

Threshold quantile autoregressive models

We study in this article threshold quantile autoregressive processes. In particular we propose estimation and inference of the parameters in nonlinear quantile processes when the threshold parameter defining nonlinearities is known for each quantile, and also when the parameter vector is estimated consistently. We derive the asymptotic properties of the nonlinear threshold quantile autoregressive estimator. In addition, we develop hypothesis tests for detecting threshold nonlinearities in the quantile process when the threshold parameter vector is not identified under the null hypothesis. In this case we propose to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the composite test using a p-value transformation. This test contributes to the literature on nonlinearity tests by extending Hansen’s (Econometrica 64, 1996, pp.413-430) methodology for the conditional mean process to the entire quantile process. We apply the proposed methodology to model the dynamics of US unemployment growth after the Second World War. The results show evidence of important heterogeneity associated with unemployment, and strong asymmetric persistence on unemployment growth

Quantile autoregressive distributed lag model with an application to house price returns

This paper studies quantile regression in an autoregressive dynamic framework with exogenous stationary covariates. Hence, we develop a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model (QADL). We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Inference based on Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for general linear restrictions is proposed. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the properties of the estimators. We demonstrate the potential of the QADL model with an application to house price returns in the United Kingdom. The results show that house price returns present a heterogeneous autoregressive behavior across the quantiles. The real GDP growth and interest rates also have an asymmetric impact on house prices variations

On the equivalence of instrumental variables estimators for linear models

This note shows the equivalence of different instrumental variables estimators to solve the endogeneity problem in linear models when valid instruments are available. We demonstrate that the exclusion restriction estimator proposed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2006) is equivalent to the two-stage least squares and the control function estimators for linear models

Which quantile is the most informative? Maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and quantile regression

This paper studies the connections among quantile regression, the asymmetric Laplace distribution, maximum likelihood and maximum entropy. We show that the maximum likelihood problem is equivalent to the solution of a maximum entropy problem where we impose moment constraints given by the joint consideration of the mean and median. Using the resulting score functions we propose an estimator based on the joint estimating equations. This approach delivers estimates for the slope parameters together with the associated “most probable” quantile. Similarly, this method can be seen as a penalized quantile regression estimator, where the penalty is given by deviations from the median regression. We derive the asymptotic properties of this estimator by showing consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions. Finally, we illustrate the use of the estimator with a simple application to the U.S. wage data to evaluate the effect of training on wages

Endogeneity bias modeling using observables

This paper proposes an alternative solution to the endogeneity problem by explicitly modeling the joint interaction of the endogenous variables and the unobserved causes of the dependent variable as a function of additional observables. We derive identification of the parameters, develop an estimator, and establish its consistency and asymptotic normality

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This chapter studies the effect of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. We develop a simple theoretical model that yields two intuitive results. First, low- and high-ability entrepreneurs are unlikely to be affected by a tax reduction and therefore, the reduction has an impact only on a segment of the microfirm population. Second, the benefits to such reduction, as measured by profits and revenues, are increasing in the entrepreneur's ability. Then, we estimate the effect of formality on the entire conditional distribution (quantiles) of revenues using the 1996 Brazilian SIMPLES program and a rich survey of formal and informal micro-firms. The econometric approach compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We develop an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity design. The econometric results corroborate the positive effect of formality on micro-firms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs

Asymptotics for panel quantile regression models with individual effects

This paper studies panel quantile regression models with individual fixed effects. We formally establish sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the quantile regression estimator when the number of individuals, n, and the number of time periods, T, jointly go to infinity. The estimator is shown to be consistent under similar conditions to those found in the nonlinear panel data literature. Nevertheless, due to the non-smoothness of the objective function, we had to impose a more restrictive condition on T to prove asymptotic normality than that usually found in the literature. The finite sample performance of the estimator is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations

Testing linearity against threshold effects: uniform inference in quantile regression

This paper develops a uniform test of linearity against threshold effects in the quantile regression framework. The test is based on the supremum of the Wald process over the space of quantile and threshold parameters. We establish the limiting null distribution of the test statistic for stationary weakly dependent processes, and propose a simulation method to approximate the critical values. The proposed simulation method makes the test easy to implement. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test has good size and reasonable power against non-linear threshold models

Tests for skewness and kurtosis in the one-way error component model

This paper derives tests for skewness and kurtosis for the panel data one-way error component model. The test statistics are based on the between and within transformations of the pooled OLS residuals, and are derived in a moment conditions framework. We establish the limiting distribution of the test statistics for panels with large cross-section and fixed time-series dimension. The tests are implemented in practice using the bootstrap. The proposed methods are able to detect departures away from normality in the form of skewness and kurtosis, and to identify whether these occur at the individual, remainder, or both error components. The finite sample properties of the tests are studied through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, and the results show evidence of good finite sample performance